An irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize.

Prologue --Peering through the eyepiece of randomness : the hidden role of chance : when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- laws of truths and half-truths : the basic principles of probability and how they are abused : why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- Finding your way through a space of possibilities : a framework for thinking about random situations : from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal -- Tracking the pathways to success : how to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters : the mathematical meaning of expectation -- dueling laws of large and small numbers : the extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe : Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- False positives and positive fallacies : how to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge : mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O.J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy -- Measurement and the law of errors : the meaning and lack of meaning in measurements : the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- order in chaos : how large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness : or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- Illusions of patterns and patterns of illusion : why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events : can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- drunkard's walk : why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality : Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life -- Acknowledgments -- Notes -- Index . Prologue -- Chapter 1: Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness -- The hidden role of chance . . . when human beings can be outperformed by a rat. -- Chapter 2: The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths -- The basic principles of probability and how they are abused . . . why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation. -- Chapter 3: Finding Your Way through a Space of Possibilities -- A framework for thinking about random situations . . . from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal. -- Chapter 4: Tracking the Pathways to Success -- How to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters . . . the mathematical meaning of expectation. -- Chapter 5: The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers -- The extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe . . . Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette. -- Chapter 6: False Positives and Positive Fallacies -- How to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge . . . mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy. -- Chapter 7: Measurement and the Law of Errors -- The meaning and lack of meaning in measurements . . . the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets. -- Chapter 8: The Order in Chaos -- How large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness . . . or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit. -- Chapter 9: Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion -- Why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events . . . can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- Chapter 10: The Drunkard's Walk -- Why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality . . . Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life. -- Acknowledgments -- Notes -- Index.